What the French press says about prices, measured every month.
More than a million press articles, read by machine-learning models and turned into a monthly indicator of inflation perceptions and expectations. The Banque de France publishes it as an official statistical series.
Research by Marwan Menaa and co-authors at the Banque de France. Forthcoming in the International Journal of Central Banking.
- Les prix de l'énergie repartent à la hausse cet hiverEnergy prices climb again this winterPrices rising
- Le prix Goncourt récompense un premier romanThe Goncourt prize goes to a first novelNot about prices
- Les loyers augmentent plus vite que les salairesRents rise faster than wagesPrices rising
- L'inflation ralentit grâce à la baisse des carburantsInflation slows as fuel prices fallPrices falling
- Les prix à la consommation restent stables en octobreConsumer prices hold steady in OctoberStable
- Le panier de courses coûte plus cher qu'il y a un anThe weekly shop costs more than a year agoPrices rising
3 rising1 falling5 about prices
Balance of opinion+40
Two decades of price talk in France
The press indicator next to what households say they expect, from January 2004 to September 2026.
Press indicator and households' expected inflation, France
Show the data as a table
| Month | Press indicator, smoothed | Press indicator, raw | EC survey, expected inflation | HICP, % y/y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09 | 3.17 | 3.58 | 36.1 | 3.4 |
| 2026-08 | 2.79 | 2.14 | 32.3 | 2.6 |
| 2026-07 | 3.12 | 3.43 | 18.6 | 2.4 |
| 2026-06 | 2.83 | 2.06 | 28.2 | 2 |
| 2026-05 | 3.23 | 2.99 | 42.6 | 2.8 |
| 2026-04 | 3.29 | 4.7 | 51 | 2.5 |
| 2026-03 | 2.34 | 4.81 | 40.3 | 2 |
| 2026-02 | 0.82 | 0.6 | 20 | 1.1 |
| 2026-01 | 1.05 | 0.6 | 23 | 0.4 |
| 2025-12 | 1.39 | 1.38 | 23.5 | 0.7 |
| 2025-11 | 1.44 | 2.58 | 20.9 | 0.8 |
| 2025-10 | 0.8 | 1.41 | 19.6 | 0.8 |
| 2025-09 | 0.51 | 0.91 | 21.1 | 1.1 |
| 2025-08 | 0.38 | 0.58 | 24 | 0.8 |
| 2025-07 | 0.37 | 0.65 | 20.3 | 0.9 |
| 2025-06 | 0.33 | 0.93 | 11.5 | 0.9 |
| 2025-05 | 0.08 | 0.18 | 14.1 | 0.6 |
| 2025-04 | 0.19 | 0.09 | 15.3 | 0.9 |
| 2025-03 | 0.39 | 0.36 | 14.5 | 0.9 |
| 2025-02 | 0.51 | 0.92 | 9.6 | 0.9 |
| 2025-01 | 0.37 | 1.29 | 9 | 1.8 |
| 2024-12 | -0.1 | 0.19 | 19.2 | 1.8 |
| 2024-11 | -0.13 | 0.48 | 13.4 | 1.7 |
| 2024-10 | -0.36 | 0.07 | 4.8 | 1.6 |
| 2024-09 | -0.44 | -0.4 | -1.1 | 1.4 |
| 2024-08 | -0.28 | -0.33 | -1.2 | 2.2 |
| 2024-07 | -0.09 | 0.05 | 3.3 | 2.7 |
| 2024-06 | -0.02 | -0.18 | 4.6 | 2.5 |
| 2024-05 | 0.22 | -0.1 | 6.3 | 2.6 |
| 2024-04 | 0.53 | 0.34 | 8.7 | 2.4 |
| 2024-03 | 0.75 | 0.39 | 8 | 2.4 |
| 2024-02 | 1.07 | 0.6 | 12.4 | 3.2 |
| 2024-01 | 1.43 | 1.31 | 3.7 | 3.4 |
| 2023-12 | 1.55 | 1.6 | 9 | 4.1 |
| 2023-11 | 1.55 | 0.99 | 7.8 | 3.9 |
| 2023-10 | 1.93 | 1.55 | 12.8 | 4.5 |
| 2023-09 | 2.17 | 2.33 | 11.8 | 5.7 |
| 2023-08 | 2.06 | 1.95 | 8 | 5.7 |
| 2023-07 | 2.13 | 2.27 | -4.8 | 5.1 |
| 2023-06 | 2.04 | 1.9 | 0.2 | 5.3 |
| 2023-05 | 2.12 | 0.61 | 13.3 | 6 |
| 2023-04 | 3.05 | 2.56 | 27.3 | 6.9 |
| 2023-03 | 3.29 | 3.21 | 40.5 | 6.7 |
| 2023-02 | 3.28 | 3.09 | 36.9 | 7.3 |
| 2023-01 | 3.3 | 2.94 | 36.2 | 7 |
| 2022-12 | 3.42 | 2.92 | 42.1 | 6.7 |
| 2022-11 | 3.62 | 3.27 | 40.2 | 7.1 |
| 2022-10 | 3.72 | 3.33 | 43.4 | 7.1 |
| 2022-09 | 3.84 | 3.77 | 42.8 | 6.2 |
| 2022-08 | 3.75 | 3.42 | 36.3 | 6.6 |
| 2022-07 | 3.82 | 3.44 | 43.1 | 6.8 |
| 2022-06 | 3.91 | 3.36 | 46.6 | 6.5 |
| 2022-05 | 4.11 | 3.63 | 51.4 | 5.8 |
| 2022-04 | 4.25 | 4.05 | 57.2 | 5.4 |
| 2022-03 | 4.2 | 3.84 | 66.4 | 5.1 |
| 2022-02 | 4.27 | 4 | 34.8 | 4.2 |
| 2022-01 | 4.26 | 4.46 | 39.8 | 3.3 |
| 2021-12 | 3.97 | 3.9 | 36 | 3.4 |
| 2021-11 | 3.87 | 3.63 | 35.8 | 3.4 |
| 2021-10 | 3.89 | 4.02 | 46.5 | 3.2 |
| 2021-09 | 3.67 | 4.17 | 34.2 | 2.7 |
| 2021-08 | 3.23 | 3.48 | 31.9 | 2.4 |
| 2021-07 | 2.99 | 3.91 | 31 | 1.5 |
| 2021-06 | 2.35 | 3.17 | 28 | 1.9 |
| 2021-05 | 1.83 | 2.12 | 30.2 | 1.8 |
| 2021-04 | 1.67 | 2.72 | 23 | 1.6 |
| 2021-03 | 1.05 | 1.67 | 20.3 | 1.4 |
| 2021-02 | 0.74 | 1.65 | 16.8 | 0.8 |
| 2021-01 | 0.28 | 0.76 | 16.9 | 0.8 |
| 2020-12 | 0.11 | 1.1 | 14.6 | 0 |
| 2020-11 | -0.35 | 0.27 | 21.2 | 0.2 |
| 2020-10 | -0.55 | -0.16 | 16.3 | 0.1 |
| 2020-09 | -0.6 | -0.46 | 13.3 | 0 |
| 2020-08 | -0.49 | 0.7 | 18.3 | 0.2 |
| 2020-07 | -1.04 | -0.27 | 20.5 | 0.8 |
| 2020-06 | -1.29 | -1.1 | 25.9 | 0.2 |
| 2020-05 | -1.16 | -1.15 | 36.3 | 0.4 |
| 2020-04 | -0.93 | -2.01 | 40.8 | 0.4 |
| 2020-03 | -0.06 | -2.04 | 28.5 | 0.8 |
| 2020-02 | 1.31 | 1.04 | 24.9 | 1.6 |
| 2020-01 | 1.53 | 0.79 | 27.1 | 1.7 |
| 2019-12 | 2.02 | 2.59 | 25.4 | 1.6 |
| 2019-11 | 1.66 | 2.16 | 25.2 | 1.2 |
| 2019-10 | 1.39 | 1.06 | 28.4 | 0.9 |
| 2019-09 | 1.63 | 2.54 | 23.9 | 1.1 |
| 2019-08 | 1.11 | 0.54 | 25.5 | 1.3 |
| 2019-07 | 1.53 | 0.88 | 23.9 | 1.3 |
| 2019-06 | 1.96 | 1.25 | 24.7 | 1.4 |
| 2019-05 | 2.4 | 2.38 | 22.6 | 1.1 |
| 2019-04 | 2.38 | 2.25 | 9.4 | 1.4 |
| 2019-03 | 2.44 | 1.34 | 25.3 | 1.3 |
| 2019-02 | 3.08 | 3.14 | 29.2 | 1.5 |
| 2019-01 | 2.97 | 1.57 | 13.1 | 1.4 |
| 2018-12 | 3.76 | 3.17 | 26.2 | 1.9 |
| 2018-11 | 3.99 | 4.21 | 33.9 | 2.2 |
| 2018-10 | 3.7 | 4.07 | 34.5 | 2.5 |
| 2018-09 | 3.35 | 3.25 | 31.1 | 2.5 |
| 2018-08 | 3.31 | 3.04 | 24.9 | 2.6 |
| 2018-07 | 3.38 | 3.53 | 24.6 | 2.6 |
| 2018-06 | 3.18 | 2.97 | 25.7 | 2.3 |
| 2018-05 | 3.22 | 3.78 | 25.7 | 2.3 |
| 2018-04 | 2.79 | 1.96 | 20.5 | 1.8 |
| 2018-03 | 3.23 | 2.29 | 24.6 | 1.7 |
| 2018-02 | 3.72 | 3.24 | 27.4 | 1.3 |
| 2018-01 | 3.89 | 4.36 | 31 | 1.5 |
| 2017-12 | 3.46 | 4.4 | 18.7 | 1.2 |
| 2017-11 | 2.79 | 2.36 | 21 | 1.2 |
| 2017-10 | 2.99 | 3.21 | 24 | 1.2 |
| 2017-09 | 2.78 | 2.75 | 18.1 | 1.1 |
| 2017-08 | 2.74 | 2.65 | 13.7 | 1 |
| 2017-07 | 2.74 | 3.5 | 13.5 | 0.8 |
| 2017-06 | 2.22 | 2.01 | 7 | 0.8 |
| 2017-05 | 2.33 | 2.17 | 8.6 | 0.9 |
| 2017-04 | 2.41 | 2.54 | 15.4 | 1.4 |
| 2017-03 | 2.3 | 1.89 | 18.4 | 1.4 |
| 2017-02 | 2.54 | 2.54 | 17.2 | 1.4 |
| 2017-01 | 2.5 | 2.75 | 24.3 | 1.6 |
| 2016-12 | 2.31 | 3.47 | 20 | 0.8 |
| 2016-11 | 1.58 | 2.52 | 9.6 | 0.7 |
| 2016-10 | 1.04 | 1.72 | 11.2 | 0.5 |
| 2016-09 | 0.69 | 0.94 | 12.2 | 0.5 |
| 2016-08 | 0.64 | 0.57 | 12.4 | 0.4 |
| 2016-07 | 0.78 | 1.21 | 10 | 0.4 |
| 2016-06 | 0.61 | 1.8 | 9.4 | 0.3 |
| 2016-05 | -0.02 | 0.68 | 5.1 | 0.1 |
| 2016-04 | -0.3 | 0.28 | 6.9 | -0.1 |
| 2016-03 | -0.49 | 0.17 | 7.9 | -0.1 |
| 2016-02 | -0.7 | -0.79 | 8.4 | -0.1 |
| 2016-01 | -0.45 | -0.96 | 9.7 | 0.3 |
| 2015-12 | 0.04 | -0.51 | 12.6 | 0.3 |
| 2015-11 | 0.53 | 0.8 | 9.7 | 0.1 |
| 2015-10 | 0.48 | 1.1 | 9 | 0.1 |
| 2015-09 | 0.21 | -0.12 | 7.6 | 0.1 |
| 2015-08 | 0.55 | 0.32 | 12 | 0.1 |
| 2015-07 | 0.81 | 1.65 | 10 | 0.2 |
| 2015-06 | 0.38 | 1.25 | 7.5 | 0.3 |
| 2015-05 | -0.03 | 0.7 | 4.1 | 0.3 |
| 2015-04 | -0.32 | 0.22 | 2.3 | 0.1 |
| 2015-03 | -0.48 | 0.16 | 1.8 | 0 |
| 2015-02 | -0.68 | -1.06 | 3.8 | -0.3 |
| 2015-01 | -0.25 | -1.09 | 9 | -0.4 |
| 2014-12 | 0.43 | -0.03 | 10.3 | 0.1 |
| 2014-11 | 0.82 | 0.48 | 14.2 | 0.4 |
| 2014-10 | 1.12 | 1.05 | 18.6 | 0.5 |
| 2014-09 | 1.23 | 1.87 | 15.1 | 0.4 |
| 2014-08 | 0.9 | 1.14 | 12.4 | 0.5 |
| 2014-07 | 0.84 | 0.53 | 15.3 | 0.6 |
| 2014-06 | 1.12 | 1.87 | 14.5 | 0.6 |
| 2014-05 | 0.73 | 0.93 | 17.4 | 0.8 |
| 2014-04 | 0.7 | 0.66 | 15.5 | 0.8 |
| 2014-03 | 0.83 | 0.57 | 19.4 | 0.8 |
| 2014-02 | 1.08 | 0.29 | 25.4 | 1.1 |
| 2014-01 | 1.62 | 0.64 | 33.1 | 0.8 |
| 2013-12 | 2.26 | 3.85 | 30.9 | 0.8 |
| 2013-11 | 1.26 | 1.12 | 28.3 | 0.8 |
| 2013-10 | 1.4 | 1.09 | 26 | 0.7 |
| 2013-09 | 1.64 | 0.88 | 25.2 | 1 |
| 2013-08 | 2.14 | 2.82 | 27.9 | 1 |
| 2013-07 | 1.71 | 2.36 | 27.8 | 1.2 |
| 2013-06 | 1.34 | 2.32 | 25.8 | 1 |
| 2013-05 | 0.79 | 1.25 | 25.3 | 0.9 |
| 2013-04 | 0.6 | 0.72 | 25.3 | 0.8 |
| 2013-03 | 0.63 | 0.03 | 31.7 | 1.1 |
| 2013-02 | 1.11 | 0.59 | 27.3 | 1.2 |
| 2013-01 | 1.49 | 0.88 | 32.6 | 1.3 |
| 2012-12 | 1.91 | 2.65 | 31.4 | 1.5 |
| 2012-11 | 1.46 | 0.87 | 33.3 | 1.6 |
| 2012-10 | 1.86 | 1.6 | 32.1 | 2.1 |
| 2012-09 | 2.03 | 2.48 | 32.2 | 2.2 |
| 2012-08 | 1.75 | 1.13 | 31.5 | 2.4 |
| 2012-07 | 2.15 | 2.75 | 21.4 | 2.2 |
| 2012-06 | 1.77 | 2.19 | 13.8 | 2.2 |
| 2012-05 | 1.54 | 0.99 | 12.9 | 2.3 |
| 2012-04 | 1.91 | 1.1 | 25.5 | 2.4 |
| 2012-03 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 27.5 | 2.6 |
| 2012-02 | 2.5 | 1.92 | 35.9 | 2.6 |
| 2012-01 | 2.82 | 2.57 | 34 | 2.6 |
| 2011-12 | 2.92 | 3.65 | 33.3 | 2.7 |
| 2011-11 | 2.41 | 2.26 | 32.1 | 2.7 |
| 2011-10 | 2.47 | 1.99 | 28.2 | 2.5 |
| 2011-09 | 2.73 | 2.48 | 35.5 | 2.4 |
| 2011-08 | 2.83 | 1.56 | 36 | 2.4 |
| 2011-07 | 3.54 | 2.79 | 29.4 | 2.1 |
| 2011-06 | 3.89 | 2.91 | 30.1 | 2.3 |
| 2011-05 | 4.35 | 3.33 | 32.2 | 2.2 |
| 2011-04 | 4.8 | 4.79 | 41.7 | 2.2 |
| 2011-03 | 4.6 | 4.43 | 39.9 | 2.2 |
| 2011-02 | 4.51 | 4.38 | 38.2 | 1.8 |
| 2011-01 | 4.4 | 4.95 | 32.4 | 2 |
| 2010-12 | 3.89 | 4.49 | 28.1 | 2 |
| 2010-11 | 3.38 | 3.25 | 25.5 | 1.8 |
| 2010-10 | 3.36 | 3.23 | 21.4 | 1.8 |
| 2010-09 | 3.34 | 3.76 | 20.9 | 1.8 |
| 2010-08 | 2.99 | 4.1 | 23.7 | 1.6 |
| 2010-07 | 2.23 | 2.73 | 17.8 | 1.9 |
| 2010-06 | 1.91 | 3.02 | 17.9 | 1.7 |
| 2010-05 | 1.24 | 1.03 | 17.9 | 1.9 |
| 2010-04 | 1.42 | 2.03 | 14.4 | 1.9 |
| 2010-03 | 1.09 | 2.45 | 10.3 | 1.8 |
| 2010-02 | 0.34 | 0.26 | 9.6 | 1.4 |
| 2010-01 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 13.2 | 1.2 |
| 2009-12 | 0.37 | 2.03 | 8.4 | 1 |
| 2009-11 | -0.52 | 0.02 | 7 | 0.5 |
| 2009-10 | -0.66 | 0.11 | 6.9 | -0.2 |
| 2009-09 | -0.94 | 0.06 | 5 | -0.4 |
| 2009-08 | -1.34 | -0.57 | -7.1 | -0.2 |
| 2009-07 | -1.56 | -0.59 | -4.1 | -0.8 |
| 2009-06 | -1.89 | -1.22 | -4.1 | -0.6 |
| 2009-05 | -2.01 | -1.45 | -8.7 | -0.3 |
| 2009-04 | -2.05 | -1.99 | -7.1 | 0.1 |
| 2009-03 | -1.79 | -1.85 | -4.5 | 0.4 |
| 2009-02 | -1.48 | -1.11 | 3.6 | 1 |
| 2009-01 | -1.44 | -1.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 2008-12 | -1.22 | -1.87 | 3 | 1.2 |
| 2008-11 | -0.58 | -2 | 7.7 | 1.9 |
| 2008-10 | 0.49 | -1.66 | 16 | 3 |
| 2008-09 | 1.91 | 0.42 | 10 | 3.4 |
| 2008-08 | 2.84 | 1.8 | 18.1 | 3.5 |
| 2008-07 | 3.42 | 2.63 | 24.1 | 4 |
| 2008-06 | 3.79 | 3.81 | 23 | 4 |
| 2008-05 | 3.65 | 3.89 | 17.3 | 3.7 |
| 2008-04 | 3.39 | 3.49 | 17.2 | 3.4 |
| 2008-03 | 3.22 | 2.62 | 11.6 | 3.5 |
| 2008-02 | 3.5 | 3.17 | 24.1 | 3.2 |
| 2008-01 | 3.59 | 3.04 | 33.9 | 3.2 |
| 2007-12 | 3.81 | 4.16 | 25.8 | 2.8 |
| 2007-11 | 3.47 | 3.67 | 38.5 | 2.6 |
| 2007-10 | 3.23 | 2.98 | 31.1 | 2.1 |
| 2007-09 | 3.3 | 2.95 | 35 | 1.6 |
| 2007-08 | 3.42 | 3.69 | 28.8 | 1.3 |
| 2007-07 | 3.15 | 3.23 | 22.6 | 1.2 |
| 2007-06 | 3.02 | 3.41 | 17 | 1.3 |
| 2007-05 | 2.7 | 2.21 | 8.5 | 1.2 |
| 2007-04 | 2.95 | 2.99 | 14.6 | 1.3 |
| 2007-03 | 2.86 | 2.66 | 14.7 | 1.2 |
| 2007-02 | 2.92 | 3.31 | 13.2 | 1.2 |
| 2007-01 | 2.62 | 2.88 | 14.7 | 1.4 |
| 2006-12 | 2.41 | 2.26 | 17.2 | 1.7 |
| 2006-11 | 2.48 | 2.17 | 18.5 | 1.6 |
| 2006-10 | 2.63 | 1.51 | 17 | 1.2 |
| 2006-09 | 3.27 | 2.14 | 18.2 | 1.5 |
| 2006-08 | 3.87 | 3.88 | 19.5 | 2.1 |
| 2006-07 | 3.73 | 3.28 | 20.8 | 2.2 |
| 2006-06 | 3.87 | 3.22 | 18.2 | 2.2 |
| 2006-05 | 4.13 | 4.11 | 22.5 | 2.3 |
| 2006-04 | 3.99 | 4.35 | 12.6 | 2 |
| 2006-03 | 3.62 | 3.84 | 16.2 | 1.7 |
| 2006-02 | 3.36 | 3.09 | 15.4 | 1.9 |
| 2006-01 | 3.43 | 3.03 | 15.2 | 2.2 |
| 2005-12 | 3.57 | 3.11 | 17 | 1.8 |
| 2005-11 | 3.73 | 3.41 | 18.9 | 1.7 |
| 2005-10 | 3.8 | 4.13 | 20.4 | 2 |
| 2005-09 | 3.47 | 3.04 | 12.6 | 2.3 |
| 2005-08 | 3.62 | 3.86 | 15.4 | 2 |
| 2005-07 | 3.36 | 3.59 | 18.2 | 1.8 |
| 2005-06 | 3.11 | 2.87 | 12.6 | 1.8 |
| 2005-05 | 3.18 | 3.28 | 15.9 | 1.7 |
| 2005-04 | 3.03 | 2.72 | 14.4 | 2 |
| 2005-03 | 3.15 | 3.75 | 12.6 | 2.1 |
| 2005-02 | 2.69 | 2.91 | 13.1 | 1.9 |
| 2005-01 | 2.51 | 2.3 | 10 | 1.7 |
| 2004-12 | 2.6 | 2.26 | 7.4 | 2.2 |
| 2004-11 | 2.77 | 3.02 | 12.6 | 2.2 |
| 2004-10 | 2.56 | 3.27 | 5 | 2.3 |
| 2004-09 | 2.08 | 1.44 | 12.6 | 2.2 |
| 2004-08 | 2.47 | 2.09 | 10.9 | 2.6 |
| 2004-07 | 2.67 | 2.76 | 9.1 | 2.6 |
| 2004-06 | 2.57 | 2.26 | 15.2 | 2.7 |
| 2004-05 | 2.71 | 3.42 | 15.2 | 2.8 |
| 2004-04 | 2.23 | 3.01 | 8.9 | 2.4 |
| 2004-03 | 1.74 | 1.78 | 11.7 | 1.9 |
| 2004-02 | 1.73 | 0.69 | 12.6 | 1.9 |
| 2004-01 | 2.39 | 1.87 | 15.2 | 2.2 |
Latest reading: September 2026
A higher value means more articles report rising prices than falling prices. The average since 2004 is 1.90.
- Press indicator, smoothed
- 3.17
- Press indicator, raw
- 3.58
- Articles about prices
- 2,954
+2.66 from a year earlier
Before smoothing
Monthly average since 2004: 1,299
How much the press talks about prices
The number of articles about prices measures media attention to inflation, separately from its direction.
Press articles about prices and the press indicator, France
How the indicator is built
Collect
More than one million articles from 30 French national and regional newspapers, magazines and news agencies.
Select
Keep the articles that use the vocabulary of prices and inflation.
Filter
Remove other meanings of the same words, such as literary prizes, so only consumer prices remain.
Classify
A supervised machine-learning model labels each article: prices rising, falling or stable.
Aggregate
A monthly balance of opinions, plus the number of articles as a measure of media attention.
Validate
Compared with the European Commission household survey and with HICP inflation.
International Journal of Central Banking, forthcoming
Using the Press to Construct a New Indicator of Inflation Perceptions in France
Olivier de Bandt, Jean-Charles Bricongne, Julien Denes, Alexandre Dhenin, Annabelle de Gaye, Marwan Menaa
- More than one million articles from 30 French national and regional newspapers, magazines and news agencies are turned into a monthly indicator.
- Supervised machine learning labels each article by the direction of prices it reports: rising, falling or stable.
- The indicator moves closely with households' inflation expectations in the European Commission survey and with headline HICP inflation.
- It helps forecast inflation one quarter ahead in a Phillips curve framework.